How results are decided
Every status and every percentage on Signal Terminal is derived by one fixed set of rules from hourly candles. No outcome is typed in by hand, and no call is removed once it is published.
The rules
1. Hourly candles, from the moment of publication
Every result is worked out from 1-hour Binance candles. The first candle considered is the first one that opens at or after the call was published; candles after the current time are ignored. Without candles the outcome reads 'outcome not available' rather than a guess.
2. One entry price
Only the near edge of the entry is simulated: the highest entry price for a call that expects the price to go up, the lowest for one that expects it to go down. Extra entry prices in a range are displayed, never averaged into a better fill.
3. When a call counts as entered
If the market is already at or past the entry when the call is published, the call enters at the first candle's opening price. Otherwise it waits for a candle whose range reaches the entry, and enters there. A call that would enter at or beyond its own safety exit is left unresolved rather than credited with a loss it never had.
4. Reaching a level
A target counts only when the price trades one tick beyond it; touching it exactly is not enough. The safety exit counts on touch. A candle that opens beyond a level is settled at that opening price, which is worse than the level for a safety exit and better than it for a target.
5. The candle that enters
In the candle where the entry happens, no target is credited: the same hour cannot both enter and take profit. A safety exit touched in that candle does count.
6. A candle that touches both a target and the safety exit
The safety exit is processed first and the whole remaining position exits there. No target from that candle is credited, and the call is labelled 'outcome ambiguous' wherever it appears. One hour of price data cannot say which came first, so the rule always takes the worse of the two readings.
7. Several targets in one candle
When the safety exit is untouched, every target the candle trades through is credited, in ladder order. A candle cannot credit the third target without the second.
8. How results are counted
The risk of a call is the distance from its entry to its first published safety exit, and that distance is 1R. Each target is credited with its share of the position, and whatever remains is settled at the exit. Results are reported in R and as a percentage move of the entry price, without leverage, in both cases weighted by those shares.
9. Edited safety exits
A published edit to the safety exit takes effect from the first candle opening at or after the edit, and the call is marked 'edited'. The risk denominator always uses the first published safety exit, so moving a stop can never flatter the R of a call after the fact. Automatic break-even moves are off.
10. Calls that never entered
If the price runs through the first target before the entry is reached, the call is 'missed'. If it reaches the safety exit first, the call is 'invalidated'. Without an entry within 48 hours it is 'expired', and an analyst who withdraws a call before it enters leaves it 'cancelled'. These are shown on every page and counted as neither wins nor losses.
11. Closed early by the analyst
A published early close settles the remaining position at the first candle opening at or after that moment, at the published price when there is one and at that candle's opening price otherwise.
12. Calls that are still open
An open call has no result. It is never marked to market and never enters the statistics; only closed calls do.
Ambiguous candles in this dataset
0 of 84 published calls had a candle that touched both a target and the safety exit. Each of those was settled at the safety exit and is labelled "outcome ambiguous" wherever it appears.
Fees and slippage
Results are reported before costs. A round trip at 0.05% per side plus 0.05% slippage costs about 0.150R on a call whose safety exit is 1% away, and about 0.030R on one whose safety exit is 5% away. The narrower the safety exit, the more of the result costs take.
What this dataset is
The calls on this dashboard are copied from tracked sources exactly as they were first published, each labelled with its source. Wins and losses are worked out from Binance prices by the same rules as everywhere else, never from the sources' own claims. A call its source later edited or deleted stays on the record.
What each statistic means
- Closed calls
- Calls that entered and then finished, at a target, at the safety exit or by an early close. Calls that never entered are shown separately and are not in this count.
- Win rate
- Profitable closed calls divided by all closed calls. Calls that finished exactly at entry stay in the denominator. The 95% interval beside it is a Wilson interval; under 30 closed calls the page says the sample is too small instead of pretending otherwise.
- Average result per closed call
- The mean percentage move over closed calls, and the same mean in R. Both include the losing calls.
- Average win and average loss
- The mean result of the profitable closed calls and of the losing ones, kept apart so a high win rate with small wins and large losses cannot hide.
- Profit factor
- Total profit in R divided by total loss in R. With no losing call there is nothing to divide by and the page shows a dash.
- Max drawdown (R)
- The deepest fall from a peak of the running result in R, in the order the calls closed. It is what a run of losses felt like, not what any account lost.
- Longest losing streak
- The most losing calls in a row, in the order they closed.
- First target reached
- The share of calls that entered and then reached at least their first target, whatever happened afterwards.
- By coin
- The same statistics grouped by coin. A bucket with fewer than 20 closed calls is greyed: it is too small to read anything into.
- Missing numbers
- Any statistic without a denominator shows a dash rather than a zero or a percentage that would be made up.